Martin Wolf on the World

As Americans prepare to vote in the November 3 midterm elections, the FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf asks what the result will mean for Donald Trump, the future of US democracy and America's place in the world. In the third of a six-part series, Martin speaks to political scientist and author Barbara F Walter, an expert on civil wars and political violence, about the risk of unrest surrounding the elections. Drawing on her research into countries around the world, Walter explains the warning signs of political violence, and why America's changing demographics and the struggle to hold on to political power are fuelling divisions. How close is the US to a dangerous tipping point? And can American democracy emerge from the midterms stronger rather than more divided? To enjoy future episodes, be sure to subscribe to ‘Martin Wolf on the World’ wherever you get your podcasts. You can also watch Martin’s podcast series on the FT’s YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialTimes Host:…

As Americans prepare to vote in the November 3 midterm elections, FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf asks what the result will mean for Donald Trump, the future of US democracy and America's place in the world. In the second of a six-part series of interviews with leading historians and political analysts, Martin speaks to Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and author Anne Applebaum about the global stakes of November’s elections. They discuss the parallels between Trump’s America and other authoritarian regimes and what the US’s changing role means for Europe and Ukraine. Even if Trump suffers a political setback, can the US ever regain the trust of its allies? To enjoy future episodes, be sure to subscribe to ‘Martin Wolf on the World’ wherever you get your podcasts. You can also watch Martin’s podcast series on the FT’s YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialTimes Host: Martin Wolf Producer: Mischa Frankl-Duval Senior producer: Laurence Knight Executive producer: Manuela Saragosa…

As Americans prepare to vote in the November 3 midterm elections, FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf asks what the result will mean for Donald Trump, the future of US democracy and America's place in the world. In the first of a six-part series of interviews with leading historians and political analysts, Martin speaks to the scholar and former Republican adviser Robert Kagan, who has spent a decade warning about Trump's authoritarian ambitions. They discuss how Trump has accumulated so much power, whether America's democratic institutions can still constrain him, and what might happen if Republicans lose control of Congress. Could these elections mark a turning point for American democracy or has the country already gone too far down the road towards authoritarianism? Watch the full episode now on the FT’s main YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialTimes Host: Martin Wolf Producer: Mischa Frankl-Duval Senior Producer: Laurence Knight Executive Producer: Manuela Saragosa Video…

In the first of this four-part series, the renowned FT columnist and economist Martin Wolf tells the FT’s executive opinion editor Jonathan Derbyshire why he fears the marriage of liberal economics and democracy may be facing its toughest test in decades. Drawing on arguments in his latest book, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, Martin explains how his own life story and career have shaped his views. Want more? Martin Wolf: in defence of democratic capitalism For Martin’s FT columns click here For the FT review of Martin’s book click here This episode is presented by Jonathan Derbyshire. The producer is Laurence Knight. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Breen Turner. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Clips: BBC, CNN, Fox News Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fault lines in the currency union stand revealed. The promise was that the eurozone would deliver its members from currency crises. But, as I, and others, warned, be careful what you wish for: credit crises would replace currency crises – and these are likely to be even worse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Borrowing is no sin, provided we use the funds to ensure that we bequeath a better infrastructure to the future, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Berlin’s emphasis on deflationary adjustment in weaker countries risks turning the eurozone as a whole into a gigantic Germany, dependent on importing demand from the rest of the world, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

They came; they saw; they lost. That is the reaction to what emerged on global rebalancing at the summit meeting of the Group of 20 leading countries in Seoul last week. Publicly, surplus countries persist in calling on those in deficit to deflate themselves into economic health. The consequences of this folly are now evident in the eurozone. At the world level, the US will never accept it. But, beneath the radar, something more productive may be emerging. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The International Monetary Fund does not normally respond to mere journalists. But its staff have explicitly rejected my arguments on the pace of fiscal consolidation in the UK. On one point – the need for a fiscal “plan B” – the IMF takes my side in the argument with the government. This is no small victory, not least because its latest report on the UK reads, in other respects, as if dictated to it by the Treasury. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The sky is falling, scream the hysterics: the Federal Reserve is pouring forth dollars in such quantities that they will soon be worthless. Nothing could be further from the truth. As in Japan, the policy known as “quantitative easing” is far more likely to prove ineffective than lethal. It is a leaky hose, not a monetary Noah’s Flood. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The debate on “global imbalances” has gone back to the future. The proposal from Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, to target the current account takes us back to the preoccupations of John Maynard Keynes at the Bretton Woods conference of July 1944. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Martin Wolf admires the courage of the government as it launches its spending review without a Plan B but wonders whether the public will accept the necessary pain Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A large part of the American public has forgotten the gravity of the financial heart attack that hit the US in the autumn of 2008. The Republicans have convinced many voters that the intervention by the Democrats, not the catastrophe George W Bush bequeathed, explains the malaise. Does President Obama deserve blame? No and yes, says Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This may be a great policy success or the biggest fiscal blunder since the early 1930s. More likely, it will be in between, says Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the announcement of massive cuts in government spending the UK has launched a remarkable policy experiment. The contrast with the US – which has announced none – should at least be instructive, says Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The changes will bring pain. But the upside is also huge. The government should grasp this nettle now, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US policymakers will do whatever is required to avoid deflation. Indeed, the Fed will keep going until the US is satisfactorily reflated. What that effort does to the rest of the world is not its concern, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The post-crisis world economy will not work so long as its most dynamic economy is also its largest capital exporter. Policies that would turn China into a net importer would benefit both its own people and the rest of the world, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Effective policy would see the government increase its deficit and have this rise funded by the Bank of England, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Twenty five years ago, France, West Germany, Japan, the US and the UK met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed to push for depreciation of the US dollar. Today America has the same desire. But this time, the focus of attention is not a compliant ally, such as Japan, but the world’s next superpower: China. When such elephants fight, bystanders are likely to be trampled, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Who dares to make such a downbeat assessment of the world’s most dynamic economy before a gathering of influential foreigners in the heart of China itself? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It would be more sensible to make plans for fiscal retrenchment that are explicitly contingent on how the economy recovers, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The world needs a smaller and safer banking industry. The defect of the new rules is that they will fail to deliver this, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Germany has an enormous political and economic interest in making the eurozone work, however unpopular that view may be, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The market is screaming its lack of concern about UK fiscal credibility. Government debt is long-term and denominated in the domestic currency. We are terrified of a confidence bogey who is asleep, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The idea that the policies adopted in the last few months of the Bush administration and the first months of this one were far better than nothing is weirdly controversial in the US, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One big drawback is that it would again put allocation of funds under the control of the state, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The austerity debate: To tighten or not to tighten – that is the question. It is one to which policymakers have started changing their answers. Are they right to do so?, asks Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leaders of the world’s principal economies – both advanced and emerging – will need to reform co-operatively and deeply if the world economy is not to suffer further earthquakes, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ruinous trust in land speculation as the route to wealth has led to expensive houses and inefficient taxes but, far worse, it ended up destabilising the entire global economy, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rapid cuts in fiscal support make sense if, and only if, monetary policy can be effective on its own and expanding the interest-elastic parts of the economy is the best way to climb out of the hole, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Was the summit of the Group of 20 leading economies in Canada over the weekend a step forward towards co-operation or a step backwards towards disagreement? The answer seems to be both. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The balance of cuts that the chancellor has set out is unlikely to prove politically sustainable, let alone sensible, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Perhaps only a young government – in age and in time in office – would gamble so much on such a fast adjustment, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

At present, we have ‘too little money chasing too many goods’. In this environment, monetary policy must be aggressive. When the economy recovers, the monetary effects should be withdrawn, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Yet again, we hear the cry of the old economic religion: repent before it is too late; the wages of fiscal sin is death. But is it already time to retrench? I doubt it, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Congratulations, Mr Osborne, on "hitting the ground running". You have made good decisions already. So far, so good. But here is my question: what is your "plan B"? , asks Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A consensus is forming that policymakers in countries with large fiscal deficits should tighten fiscal policy sharply – but what makes them sure that business and consumers will spend in response to austerity? asks Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Flows of finance from export-driven ant nests to advanced grasshopper colonies end in tears. Flows of finance from old ant nests to young ones have not worked out either, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

‘If the forecasts are true,’ asked Bobby, ‘why do all these people talk about ‘instability’? Martin Wolf responds Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The OECD seems to take the view that they only big risk is a loss of fiscal and monetary ‘credibility’. But Martin Wolf argues a lengthy floundering economy is a more serious risk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today’s global economy is more complex than Aesop could have imagined. What would be the moral of a contemporary version of his famous story where the “ants” are Germans, Chinese and Japanese, while the “grasshoppers” are American, British, Greek, Irish and Spanish, asks Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Despite today’s gloom and doom, the eurozone will probably survive. But the view that everything would now be fine had fiscal rules been followed is wrong. The private sector’s irresponsibility was the biggest failing, says Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everybody would like to blame Gordon Brown for the financial crisis. But he was only acting in line with the national consensus on economic policy, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The German inclination is to believe that everything would be fine if deficit countries were placed under greater discipline. This is false. The answer, instead, is to create a system that recognises and responds to reality, says Martin Wolf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Desperate times - desperate measures, says Martin. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Martin finds himself in New York for the election - which he says gives him a sense of perspective. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To make anything close to the present system less unsafe, says Martin, requires radical changes in the rules - tighter supervision is not enough, incentives must change fundamentally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

People pay too much attention to the direct costs of bailouts says Martin and not enough to the costs which matter - those of the recession itself and the huge jump in public debt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Martin Wolf asks what is the right economic medicine for the UK? He argues that rebalancing the economy towards higher investment and higher net exports is a big part of the answer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.